After reviewing price movement, calling, and texting my analytical team, I verified cryptos are in crisis mode.
Boom, bust, boom for cryptocurrencies
We’re long-term crypto bulls.
Blockchain will rewrite society, the economics, and politics over the next 20 years, just as the internet did over the previous 20.
Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia have been the market’s top investments during the last 20 years.
Similarly, blockchain investments will be the finest in 20 years.
We predict this “crypto winter” will become a generational buying opportunity like November 2011, January 2015, and January 2019.
Crypto accomplishes this.
Boom-bust-boom cycles occur. You get a two- to three-year boom, then a year-long slump, then another boom and bust.
This won’t end soon. We’re bust. We’ll boom soon.
A Generational Turnaround
The graphic above shows that crypto boom cycles run 700 to 1,000 days. Busts last 400 days.
If history repeats itself, the present bust cycle will terminate in November or December.
This fits macroeconomic expectations.
Inflation should cool by November. Equities should recover. Yields will drop. Improved risk attitudes are anticipated.
Add to that the fourth Bitcoin halving (in early 2023), and it makes sense for the present crypto bust cycle to change into a boom cycle in late 2022.
How low will BTC go? Not far, we suppose.
Crypto winters/bust cycles/bear markets tend to find support and bottom around BTC‘s realized price line. This occurred in 2015, 2019, and 2020 COVID-19.
Assuming this historical tendency remains true, BTC will bottom around $24,000. That’s 5% below BTC’s current price.
We expect BTC will decrease 5% over the next few months to $24,000 before a strong turnaround in the final few months of 2022 and a fresh boom cycle in 2023-25 fuelled by BTC halving mania.
That’s a positive perspective.
Crypto Crash Wrap-Up
Selectivity, patience, and consolidation.
This isn’t the moment to gamble on crypto. Most cryptos will fail in the long term. The survivors of this winter will be long-term winners, therefore gamble heavily on high-quality cryptos.
When investing in bitcoin, bring a sniper, not a shotgun. It’s time to concentrate on a few important cryptos and go “all-in” with them.
That’s ambitious. Over 6,000 cryptos are available. Most will zero. Few will be 10X winners.